管理学,罗宾斯,9版,教师手册robbins04b.docVIP

QUANTITATIVE MODULE QUANTITATIVE DECISION-MAKING AIDS In the study of this module, the authors introduce payoff matrices, decision trees, break-even analysis, ratio analysis, linear programming, queuing theory, and economic order quantity. The purpose of each method is to provide managers with a tool to assist in the decision making process and to provide more complete information to make better-informed decisions. Payoff Matrices Uncertainty is a situation in which the decision maker is not certain and cannot even make reasonable probability estimates concerning the outcomes of alternatives. The choice of alternative is influenced by the limited amount of information available to the decision maker. It’s also influenced by the psychological orientation of the decision maker. Example of Visa International Four possible strategies and the resulting profit. (See Exhibit QM-1) An optimistic manager will follow a maximax choice, maximizing the maximum possible payoff. . A pessimistic manager will pursue a maximin choice, maximizing the minimum possible payoff. The manager who desires to minimize the maximum “regret” will opt for a minimax choice. (See Exhibit QM -2) Decision Trees Learning Catalytics Question: Instructor Directions and Follow-Up Question Type Question Answer/Response For the Instructor Image Upload Create a decision tree for your decision to attend this college/university. There is no correct answer. Students often make decisions without considering their long-term impact. Use this question to help students think about how they make decisions and how they might improve their decision-making process by using a decision tree. Decision trees are a useful way to analyze hiring, marketing, investment, equipment purchases, pricing, and similar decisions that involve a progression of decisions. They’re called decision trees because, when diagrammed, they look a lot like a tree with branches. Example of Harrington, a site selection supervisor of a b