管理学,罗宾斯,9版,英文Robbins04b.pptVIP

Next let’s look at queuing theory, which can help a supervisor of a bank branch decide how many of the teller stations to keep open at any given time to minimize cost by having as few stations open as possible without testing the patience of customers. Let’s assume you have six tellers working for you, but you want to know whether you can get by with only one window open during an average morning. You consider 12 minutes to be the longest you would expect any customer to wait patiently in line. If it takes 4 minutes, on average, to serve each customer, the line should not be permitted to get longer than three deep (12 minutes ÷ 4 minutes per customer = 3 customers). If you know from past experience that during the morning people arrive at an average rate of two per minute, you can calculate the probability (P) of customers waiting in line as follows: Pn = [1 - Arrival rate ] x [Arrival rate] ? Service rate Service rate] where n = 3 customers, arrival rate = 2 per minute, and service rate = 4 minutes per customer. Putting these numbers into the previous formula generates the following: Pn = [1 - 2/4] X [2/4]to the 3rd = (1/2) x 8/64) = (8/128) = 0.0625 Having a P of 0.0625 means that the likelihood of having more than three customers in line during the average morning is 1 chance in 16. If you are you willing to have four or more customers in line 6 percent of the time, keeping one teller window open will be enough. If not, you will have to assign more tellers to staff more windows. * One of the best-known techniques for mathematically deriving the optimum quantity for a purchase order is the economic order quantity (EOQ) model, as seen here in Exhibit QM–8. The EOQ model seeks to balance four costs involved in ordering and carrying inventory: The purchase costs (which include purchase price plus delivery charges less discounts) The ordering costs (which include paperwork, follow-up, inspection when the item arrives, and other process