横断面因素对双车道公路交通安全影响的研究.pdfVIP

Research on Cross-section Factors Impacting on Traffic Safety of Two-lane Highway A Dissertation Submitted for the Degree of Master Candidate：Hou Saiyin Supervisor：Prof. Zhao Yifei Chang’an University, Xi’an, China 万方数据 万方数据 I 摘要 近年来,公路交通事业得到了长足的发展，公路交通运输为国民经济和社会的发展做 出了重大贡献，但交通事故的发生也造成大量的人员伤亡和巨大的经济损失，给社会的 的发展带来了负面影响。公路交通事故的发生通常受到多种因素影响，其中公路横断面 因素是一个不容忽视的方面。 本文总结分析了国内外有关公路横断面因素与交通安全、运行速度之间的关系以及 考虑公路横断面因素建立的事故预测模型。以此为基础，通过对所收集的公路事故数据 的统计计算，回归分析了双车道公路路基宽度、路面宽度、行车道宽度、路肩宽度与交 通安全间的关系，进而揭示了中国双车道公路横断面因素对交通安全的影响规律。结合 相关研究数据和实地调研观测数据，计算了各横断面影响因素下的运行速度值，归纳总 结了横断面各组成要素对自由流车速的影响规律。在介绍分析目前国外的一些适用性较 广泛的事故预测模型及其适用性范围的基础上，通过比选采用了一种合适的横断面事故 率预测模型，并对其参数进行检验、调整，初步验证了模型在中国的实用性，为后继工 作打下基础。 关键词：双车道公路，横断面因素，交通安全，自由流运行速度，事故预测模型 万方数据 II Abstract In recent years, highway transportation enterprise obtaining the considerable development has been made a significant contribution to national economic and social development, at the same time, the occurrence of traffic accident also caused heavy casualties and huge economic losses, and had a negative impact on the steady development of the society. Highway traffic accidents are often affected by many factors, including highway cross-section factors which can not be ignored. This paper summarizes and analyzes the relevant relationships between highway cross-section and traffic safety, running speed, and establishes accident prediction model taking into account highway cross-section factors. On the basis of that, this paper regresses and analyses the relationship between the two-lane highway roadbed width, pavement width, lane width, shoulder width and traffic safety, and then reveals the rules of the two-lane highway cross-section factors impacting on traffic safety. Combining with relevant research and field observation data, this paper also calculates the running speed value under transverse impact factors, and summarizes the rules of highway cross-section factors impacting