中国进出口商品结构及其和经济增长的关系研究.pdf

东北9币范大学硕士学位论文 Abstract In this paper,I used international trade theory and econometrics methods to study the relationship between the GDP growth and trade commodity structure，based on the import and export volume of primary products，import and export volume of manufactured goods and GDP statistics from 1 980 tO 2007． TKs paper is divided into four parts： nle first part summarizes for the literature，mainly introduced domestic and foreign research on the commodity structure． 111e second part analyses import and export commodity structure’S present situation in China,including the evolution and questions of the import and export commodity structure。I fred that our country’S import-export goods structure has had certain change through studying the statistics of trade commodity structure from 1 980 to 2008．Along with the share of exports of manufactured goods changing from the initial lower than 50％to more than 90％now,the structure of export commodities has continued the trend ofoptimization．111e share of imports of primary products is maintained generally at about 20％，but in recent years，there is an upward trend，energy products make up a large proportion． ne third part is empirical analysis．T11is article uses cointegration test and granger causality test to research the relationship between the GDP and the trade commodity structure by the statistics from 1 980 to 2007．It works out the con．clusion that both import and export commodities structure played an active role in the economic growth． ‘ 111e fourth part is for policy suggestions．According to the results I put forward policy recommendations about adjusting the commodity structure in order to promote the steady growth of Chinese economy． Key words：Export commodity structure；Import commodity structure；Economic growth； ADF test；VAR model；Cointegration test；Granger causality test H 独创性声明 本人郑重声明：所提交的学位论文是本人在导师指导下独立 进行研究工作所取得的成果。据我所知，除了特别加以标注和 致谢的地方外，论文中不包含其他人已经发表或撰写过的研究 成果。对本人的研究做出重要贡献的个人和集体，均已在文中 作了明确的说明。本声明的法律结果由本人承担。