大型重建工程施工导流风险分析和极端天气影响.pdfVIP

ABSTRACT Construction diversion is a significant part of hydraulic engineering project construction which is a key factor of whole project that carries through from beginning to end ofthe whole construction process．Numbers of dangerous reservoits need to be reinforced or rebuilt as the hydraulic engineering developed rapidly in our country．Using the primary dam to retain water is an economical diversion scheme for large reconstruction hydraulic engineering project of．ThiS topic deserves to be studied whether the risk analysis of diversion scheme in new project is suitable to that in reconstruction project． Besides，extreme weather happens from time to time，risk analysis of construction diversion which considers the extreme weather iS also desirable to be discussed． According to the problems mentioned above，works in fo llowing aspects have been done： (1)Analyzing the stochastic uncertainty factors that influence the construction and diversion of new projects and their distribution．Constructing the risk calculation model of diversion based on Monte—Carlo method according to comprehensive comparison of several risk calculation methods． (2)Redefining the risk analysis of construction di、rersion in reconstruction project and modifying the risk analysis calculation model based on the characteristics of large reconstruction hydraulic engineering project that different仔om new project． (3)Spatial and temporal distribution of water resource varies for the variation of weather that leads to the change of global hydrological cycle．Variation of precipitation influences the variation of flood by influencing the form of flow which has direct impacts on diversion in hydraulic engineering construction．Hence，it is necessary to analyze the trend of future precipitation in our country． (4)Calculating the risk rate of diversion scheme and analyzing the results by using the risk analysis method proposed in this paper based on an example of construction diversion in hydraulic reconstructio