贵州省粮食生产影响因素分析.docVIP

贵州省粮食生产影响因素分析 摘要：作为中国西南地区重要的农业省份之一，贵州省粮食生产产值在其国民经济组成中占有重要地位。根据贵州省1993―2012年粮食生产的相关数据，运用最小二乘回归方法建立了贵州省粮食生产影响因素初始回归模型，之后运用逐步回归法对上述回归方程进行精确性调整、相关性检验和异方差性检验，得到最佳拟合回归方程。通过对回归结果进行分析，发现粮食播种面积和化肥施用量是影响贵州省粮食生产的关键因素，并认为在粮食播种面积受限、化肥施用量达到使粮食边际产量开始递减的极限背景下，资本投入和农业技术进步是提高贵州省粮食产量的新途径。因此，贵州省应该通过有效保护耕地、稳定粮食作物种植面积、改善施肥结构、加大农业资本投入和技术投入等措施来保证本省粮食的稳产增产。 关键词：贵州省；粮食生产；影响因素；回归模型 中图分类号：F326.11；F327 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2016）08-2146-06 DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2016.08.059 Abstract： As one of the important agricultural provinces in southwest China， the output value of grain production in Guizhou province have occupy an important status in national economy. Based on the relative data of 1993―2012 food production in Guizhou， using the least-squares regression method， an initial regression model of the factors influencing grain production of Guizhou was established， then using the stepwise regression method to adjust the accuracy and test the correlation and heteroscedasticity of the regression equation， the best fitting regression equation was obtained. Through the regression analysis， the results found that， the area sown to grain and amounts of fertilizer application were the key factors influencing grain production of Guizhou， and which argued that in the extreme background that the area sown to grain was limited， and the amounts of fertilizer began to make the marginal product decline， the capital input and agricultural technical progress were new ways for increasing grain production in Guizhou. Therefore， Guizhou should ensure the stable and increased grain production of the province through measures such as effectively protecting the arable land， making food crops planting area stable， improving fertilization structure， increasing inputs of agricultural capital and technique. Key words： Guizhou province； grain production； influence factors； the regression model 粮食是人类生存的必需品，是社会经济发展和国家安定富强的重要基础和重要保障，粮食问题关系着国计民生，是中国政府一直以来高度重视的重大问题之一[1]。特别是近些年来，随着世界气候变化、人口增长及环境问题的日益凸显，粮食生产与安全问题更加受到