Study on Jilin Province’s Population Growth Trend Model.docVIP

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Study on Jilin Province’s Population Growth Trend Model.doc

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Study on Jilin Province’s Population Growth Trend Model.doc

Study on Jilin Province’s Population Growth Trend Model Abstract：With the population data of Jilin Province from the year 1949 to 2009 and valid population growth change rates, this paper intends to predict the population growth trend of Jilin province by a comparative study conducted under the Malthusian Population Model and Logistic Model and to explore the accuracy of these two models. It then comes to the conclusion that the population of Jilin province will reach the peak when it amounts to 33 million, that is to say, the net population growth rate tends to be a stable one, namely to be zero. Key words: Malthusian population model; Logistic model; Population growth rate; Comparison JIN Yuzi 2012 . Study on Jilin Province’s Population Growth Trend Model. Advances in Natural Science, 5 4 , -0. Available from: /index.php/ans/article/view/j.ans.1座机电话号码0120504.ZJ001 DOI: /10.3968/j.ans.1座机电话号码0120504.ZJ001 INTRODUCTION According to Jilin Statistical Yearbook[1], the population of Jilin province has increased by 17.303 million during the 61 years since the founding of our country. Its variation tendency mainly showed that while the total population kept growing, the growth rate was on a decline. Despite this trend, the growth rate in every 6 years was relatively stable. Besides, the gender ratio is heading toward balance. Moreover, on the one hand, agricultural population of Jilin province maintained a rapid and sustainable growth between the year 1949 and 1974, rising from 8.282 million to 14.198 million. However, the agricultural population rose slowly from the year 1974 to 2010, with a population of 14.198 million and 14.817 million respectively. On the other hand, the nonagricultural population is in constant increase, from 1.803 million in 1949 to 12.421 million in 2010. As the population increases, the nonagricultural trend is gaining momentum and presents a trend of linear growth. METHODOLOGY Malthusian Population Model The population growth rate is a constan