i n s t i t u t e f o r d e f e n s e a n a l y s e s（我希望你知道这一切都是为了一个更好的结果。）.docVIP

I N S T I T U T E F OR DE F E N S E A NA LYS E S D E F E N S E T H R E AT R E D U C T I O N AGENCY East Asia’s Nuclear Future: A Long-Term View of Threat Reduction Brad Roberts IDA Paper P-3641 Log: H 01-001598 August 2001 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. SPONSOR: Defense Threat Reduction Agency Dr. Jay Davis, Director Advanced Systems and Concepts Office Dr. Randall S. Murch, Director BACKGROUND: The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) was founded in 1998 to integrate and focus the capabilities of the Department of Defense (DoD) that address the weapons of mass destruction threat. To assist the Agency in its primary mission, the Advanced Systems and Concepts Office (ASCO) develops and maintains an evolving analytical vision of necessary and sufficient capabilities to protect United States and Allied forces and citizens from WMD attack. ASCO is also charged by DoD and by the U.S. Government generally to identify gaps in these capabilities and initiate programs to fill them. It also provides support to the Threat Reduction Advisory Committee (TRAC), and its Panels, with timely, high quality research. ASCO ANALYTICAL SUPPORT: The Institute for Defense Analyses has provided analytical support to DTRA since the latter’s inception through a series of projects on chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons issues. This work was performed for DTRA under contract DASW01 98 C 0067, Task DC-6-1990. SUPERVISING PROJECT OFFICER: Dr. Anthony Fainberg, Chief, Advanced Concepts and Technologies Division, ASCO, DTRA, (703) 767-5709. ? 2001 INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES: 1801 N. Beauregard Street, Alexandria, Virginia 22311-1772. Telephone: (703) 845-2000. Project Coordinator: Dr. Brad Roberts, Research Staff Member, (703) 845-2489. REPORT: This material may be reproduced by or for the U.S. Government pursuant to the copyright license under the clause at DFARS 252.227-7013 (NOV 95). T