ppt课件-chapter8-forecasting-csus-sacramentostate.pptVIP

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ? Wiley 2010 * Selecting the Right Forecasting Model The amount type of available data Some methods require more data than others Degree of accuracy required Increasing accuracy means more data Length of forecast horizon Different models for 3 month vs. 10 years Presence of data patterns Lagging will occur when a forecasting model meant for a level pattern is applied with a trend ? Wiley 2010 * Forecasting Software Spreadsheets Microsoft Excel, Quattro Pro, Lotus 1-2-3 Limited statistical analysis of forecast data Statistical packages SPSS, SAS, NCSS, Minitab Forecasting plus statistical and graphics Specialty forecasting packages Forecast Master, Forecast Pro, Autobox, SCA ? Wiley 2010 * Guidelines for Selecting Software Does the package have the features you want? What platform is the package available for? How easy is the package to learn and use? Is it possible to implement new methods? Do you require interactive or repetitive forecasting? Do you have any large data sets? Is there local support and training available? Does the package give the right answers? ? Wiley 2010 * Other Forecasting Methods Focus Forecasting Developed by Bernie Smith Relies on the use of simple rules Test rules on past data and evaluate how they perform Combining Forecasts Combining two or more forecasting methods can improve accuracy ? Wiley 2010 * Collaborative Planning Fore-casting Replenishment (CPFR) Establish collaborative relationships between buyers and sellers Create a joint business plan Create a sales forecast Identify exceptions for sales forecast Resolve/collaborate on exception items Create order forecast Identify exceptions for order forecast Resolve/collaborate on exception items Generate order ? Wiley 2010 * Forecasting within OM: How it all fits together Forecasts impact not only other business functions but all other operations decisions. Operations managers make many forecasts, such as the expected demand for a co