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Radiative-Convective equilibrium; -No- horizontal motion models. Radiative-Convective equilibrium; with green house effect no climate feed back These model predicts the green house warming ΔTg = 33 0C i.e. with CO2 = 300 ppm In test simulations with doubling the CO2, i.e. with 600 ppm (expected true value in near future), the additional ΔTg = 1.2 0C Why doubling CO2 produce meager changes in temperature? Radiation absorption spectrum by CO2 and other greenhouse gases (H20 vapor) are different Radiative-Convective equilibrium; with climate feedbacks Climate feedbacks are extremely important because they can either amplify or moderate the radiative effect of changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. We examined the feedbacks in chapter-2 in an imaginary “Daisy world” We analogically attribute such feedbacks to the earth system here. Water vapor feedback Water vapor is an excellent absorber of IR radiation. Unlike CO2, water vapor are at the edges of condensation, and if condenses and rain-out, the average vapor concentration in atmosphere reduces. This can cause reduction in GH-warming On the other hand, if average surface temperature increases by global warming, water vapor concentration increases and that will increase GH-warming further. Observed Climate changes. Satellite derived water vapor (total column water vapor) 1988-2004 Trend Anomaly ? IPCC-AR4 Ts Atm. H2O GH-effect (a) Water vapor feed back +ve Radiative-Convective equilibrium; with water vapor feedbacks Average surface temperature changes in doubling the CO2 experiment without climate feedback was 1.2 0C. Whereas the above experiment with watervapor feedback causes the surface temperature rise by additional 1.2 0C. Therefore the total change in temperature with water vapor feedback is 2.4 0C. The feedback factor = 2.4/1.4 = 2 (strong positive feedback). Snow-ice albedo feedback Ts Snow and Ice Albedo +ve Snow-ice feedback If surface Ts increases snow melts and albedo decreases If albedo decr
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