Basics of Credit Analysis信贷风险分析基础.ppt

Basics of Credit Analysis信贷风险分析基础 Sources and Types of Risks风险来源及种类 Framework for Financial Statement Analysis of Risk财务报表风险分析架构 Analysis of Short-Term Liquidity Risk短期流动性风险分析 The analysis of short-term liquidity risk requires an understanding of the operating cycle of a firm! 短期流动性风险分析需要了解一家企业的经营过程 Current Ratio: mainly used to give an idea about the company’s ability to pay back its short-term liabilities and a sense of the efficiency of the firm’s operating cycle and its ability to turn its products into cash (ratio ≥ 1.0 preferred) 流动比率：主要用于分析公司短期偿债能力，经营效率及变现能力（比率应大于等于1.0） Quick Ratio: known as acid test, measures the firm’s ability to pay off its short-term debt from current liquid assets; draws a more realistic picture (trend towards 0.5) 速动比率：也叫酸性测试，考量企业用速动资产偿还短期债务的能力，比流动比率更真实（接近0.5） Operating Cash Flow Ratio: using cash flow as opposed to accounting items provides a better indication of liquidity (40%ntypical of a healthy firm) 营运现金流动比率：使用实际的现金流量比科目余额更好的衡量企业流动性（良好的企业的比率通常为40%） Short-term liquidity problems also arise from longer-term solvency difficulties! 长期流动性困难也会导致短期流动性问题 Analysis of Long-Term Solvency Risk长期偿债能力风险分析 Increasing the proportion of debt in the financial structure intensifies the risk that the firm cannot pay interest and repay the principle on the amount borrowed 增加债务在资本结构中的比例会增加企业无法到期还本付息的风险 Analysis of long-term solvency risk must begin with an analysis of short-term liquidity risk 长期偿债能力风险分析必须从短期流动性风险分析出发 Firms must survive in the short-term if they are to survive in the long-term! 企业必须在短期经营中生存才能够在长期经营中生存 Interest Coverage Ratio: gives a sense of how far earnings can fall before a firm will start defaulting on its payments (risky if ≤ 2.0) 已获利息倍数：表示企业盈利对需要支付利息的保障（如果小于等于2就存在风险） Long-Term Debt to Long-Term Capital Ratio: way of looking at the debt structure and determine what portion of total capitalization is comprised of long-term debt (what if ≥ 1?) 长期债务/长期资本比率：衡量总资本中长期债务所占的比例（如果大于等于1，说明什么？） Models of Bankruptcy Prediction 破产预测模型