基于运力均衡与价格弹性的公路货运平均成本分析_杭文.pdfVIP

基于运力均衡与价格弹性的公路货运平均成本分析 杭　文1, 　黄　臻2, 　李旭宏1, 　何　杰1, 　毛海军1 ( 1. , 210096; 2. , 214031) : 针对传统公路货运平均成本分析中, 不考虑运力结构转移和货运需求量结构性变化的预测方法所 存在的不足, 提出了通过按轮轴类型划分的公路货运交通量和车辆轴载谱调查, 获取基年车辆装载量的概率 密度分布函数, 由主流车型的短期平均运输成本拟合得到公路货运车辆的长期平均运输成本函数, 根据运力 均衡的思想, 使用长期平均运输成本模型和货运需求价格弹性模型对计划年分批量的公路货运需求量进行 修正, 在此基础上建立外部环境变化条件下计划年公路货运平均成本的求解模型。结合安徽省某高速公路的 实际调查数据进行检验。结果表明, 提出的测算方法可行、有效。 : 公路运输经济; 预测方法; 运力均衡; 平均货运成本; 价格弹性 : U 492 : A : 1009-3443( 2010) 01-0084-05 Highway average freight cost forecasting based on conveyance equilibrium and price elasticity H A N G Wen1 , H UA N G Zhen2, LI X u-hong1 , H E J ie1 , M A O H ai -j un1 ( 1. T ranspor tation Colleg e Southeast U niv ersit y, Nanjing 210096, China ; 2. W uxi M unicipa l Engineer ing Pr oject s M anag ement Co nst ructio n Co . , Lt d, Wux i 214031, China) Abstract: T he changeabilit y o f t ruck co nf igurat io n and f reig ht dem and conf ig uration w ere o ft en o ver looked in the tr aditio nal highw ay aver ag e f reight cost f orecast ing st udies. T o solv e t he problem, a new fo recast ing met ho d w as developed. T he t ruckload probabilit y f unct io ns of the prev ailing t ruck configurat ions w ere got fr om t he t raf fic volume sur vey and t he axle l oad sur vey classif ied by t ruck w heel and axl e t y pe. T he longrun aver age co st ( L AC ) f unct io n was g ot by t he shor t -r un average costs o f t he prevailing t ruck co nf igurat io ns based on t he act ual t ruckload inf orm ation. T he fut ure highw ay f reig ht demand classif ied by shipm ent w as mo dified by L AC and the price elast icit y under conveyance equilibrium assumptio n. T hen t he t ot al highw ay av er ag e f reig ht co st f orecast ing m odel w as developed t o analy ze t he impact s of the ex t ernal fact ors. T he for ecast ing m et hod w as ver if ied w it h Anhui highw ay dat a and prov ed t o be valid. Key words: hig hway t ransport at io n econom ics; f orecasting met hod; convey ance equilibrium; average fr eig ht cost ; price elast icit y