毕业论文-理财产品收益率分析 以余额宝为例.docVIP

摘要 从2013年起，余额宝的高收益、低门槛、便网购、无手续费、随存随取等特点吸引了大批投资者，仅仅一个月就突破亿。 本文以此为背景，实证分析货币基金理财产品收益率的波动情况。首先分析余额宝10个月的收益率；其次建立模型，模型；再对模型进行各类检测，检验其显著性；最后预测某几天理论值，并与实际值比较，测量精度。最后得到四个结论：第一、余额宝的收益率与银行间同业拆借利率、基金指数无明显关系，可以猜测其变化不受银行间同业拆借利率和基金指数的主要影响。第二、由于经济系统的惯性和经济活动的滞后效应，经济数据往往表现出自相关。这违背线性回归方程的古典假定，使预测的置信区间不可靠，降低预测精度。第三、收益率序列是非平稳序列存在自相关，能较好拟合收益率的波动。第四、余额宝收益率高，但是作为投资依然存在风险。面对新型金融产品应该理性认识，并利用科学的方法检测风险，及时规避，这样才能实现资产保值升值。 关键字:余额宝收益率波动性、单位根检验、自相关性、模型、模型 Abstract Since 2013, the high yield, low threshold, online shopping, no fees, and along with the deposit with the take attracted a large number of investors, just a mouth broke through 10 billion. Based on this background ,the empirical analysis of monetary fund financial product yield volatility. First, I analysis the balance yield of 10 months. Second, I build model and model, again to all kinds of tests.Finally, I predict one day the theoretical value, comparing with the actual value, and the accuracy of measurement. Eventually getting four conclusions. First, the balance of yields ,the interbank lending rates and the fund index have no obvious relation.You can guess the change not from the interbank lending rates and index funds. Second, because of the economic system of inertia and the hysteresis effect of economic activities, economic data is often from the related performance.This contrary to the linear regression equation of the classical assumptions, making the prediction confidence interval unreliable, reducing the prediction precision.Third, yield sequence is a auto-correlation series of stationary and model can better fitting yield fluctuation.Fourth, balance yield is high, but there is still risks of investment. In the face of new financial products should be rational knowledge, and using the scientific method to detect risk,in time to avoid ,this can ensure the asset value appreciation in this way. Keywords: The yield volatility of the balance of the treasure, Unit root test, Auto-correlation, model, model