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Assessing the impact of urban expansion on potential crop yield
ORIGINAL PAPER
Assessing the impact of urban expansion on potential crop yield
in China during 1990–2010
Luo Liu Xinliang Xu Xi Chen
Received: 20 February 2014 /Accepted: 2 December 2014
# Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht and International Society for Plant Pathology 2014
Abstract Rapid urbanization in China has raised great con-
cerns regarding food security caused by conversion of limited
cultivated land to urban use. In this study, the loss of potential
crop yield due to urban expansion in China during 1990–2010
was calculated by the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ)
model. Over this period, potential yield decreased by approx-
imately 34.90million tons due to urban expansion, accounting
for 6.52 % of China’s total actual production. The decrease
was 13.07 and 21.83 million tons during the first and second
decade, respectively. Key areas of lost potential yield were
primarily in the Middle-lower Yangtze Plain and the Huang-
Huai-Hai Plain. However, South China became a new key
area of lost potential yield during the second decade. These
findings provide useful information for the development of
land use policy, protection of suitable arable land resources
and urban development plans in China.
Keywords Urban expansion . Potential yield .GAEZ .China
Introduction
The urbanization process is one of the most important aspects
of global change, which is associated with the immigration
from rural residential land to urban areas, accompanied by the
clearing of forests and the conversion of cropland to urban
construction land (Burke et al. 1991; Qiao et al. 2013a; Tian
and Qiao 2014). China has undergone rapid urbanization due
to population growth, economic development and changing
land use over the last few decades (Deyong et al. 2009). It is
worth noting that the percentage of the population in urban
areas of China reached 50% in 2010, whereas it was just 17%
in 1978 (Tian and Qiao 2014). The acceleration of urban
population growth has not only resulted in
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