北太平洋海温与棉铃虫遥相关的空间变化规律及机制探讨.doc

北太平洋海温场与棉铃虫种群数量遥相关的空间变化规律及机制探讨收稿日期： 基金来源:青岛农业大学高层次人才科研基金项目（项目编号：6630506）。 作者简介: 秦淑莲，1962年10月生，女，山东招远人，博士，教授。主要从事病虫测报、数据分析处理及应用软件开发研制等方向的研究，E-mail:qinshulian@163.com 秦淑莲1 , 姜玉英2 , 翟保平3 , 张孝羲3 （1. 青岛农业大学理学与信息学院，青岛 266019；2.全国农业技术推广服务中心测报处，北京 100125；南京农业大学昆虫学系, 农业部病虫监测与治理重点实验室, 南京 210095） 摘 要：通过计算21个站点（范围在30-40?N,110?E以东）棉铃虫三代卵量与前两年1月份北太平洋海温场各格点的相关系数，用ArcGIS输出相关系数的空间分布图，分析相关关系的空间分布规律，明确了各地棉铃虫三代卵量与前两年1月份北太平洋海温场遥相关显著区的空间分布形式及其变化规律。结果表明：江苏丰县为其南部转折区，山东德州处于北部过渡区，西部过渡区位于陕西大荔、山西运城和河南堰城、安阳之间。结合海温因子与气候相关系数的时空分布和多年平均气候要素的等值线分布，可初步确定西部、北部的转折过渡区与气温有关，南部转折过渡区与降水有关。 关键词：棉铃虫；海温；相关分析；长期灾变预测 Spatial distribution and Mechanism of Tele-correlation between SST in North Pacific field and the population size of Cotton Bollworm QIN Shu-Lian1 , JIANG Yu-Ying2 , ZHAI Bao-Ping3 , ZHANG Xiao-Xi3 (1. College of Science and Information Engineering, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao 266019, China; 2.Pest Forecasting Division, National Agro-Technique Extension and Service Center, Beijing 100026, China; 3. Key Laboratory of Pest Monitoring and Management of Chinese Agricultural Ministry, Department of Entomology, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China) Abstract: Through computing the correlation between SST anomalies of January two years before in the Northern Pacific and the 3rd generation eggs in 21 stations (from 30°N to 40°N, 110°E east) and outputting the spatial distribution of correlation coefficient With ArcGIS, the spatial distribution of the correlation between SST(sea surface temperature) anomalies of January two years before in the Northern Pacific and the 3rd generation eggs was determined. Results show as follow: The transition zone in southern was in Fengxian,Jiangsu, province. The transition zone in northern was in Dezhou, Shandong province. The transition zone in west was located in Dali(Shanxi province),Yuncheng(Shanxi province) and Yancheng(Henan province). It Can be preliminarily determined that the transition zone in the west and north related to t