Exeter’s Work for NREL and the California Energy ….pptVIP

Scenarios情景 * Exeter Associates, Inc. Include multiple scenarios of increasing wind penetration, by energy Start with base year (i.e., current year or the last year with most complete set of data) Include at least one scenario with very high wind penetration (e.g., 30% or 40%) Consider scenarios focused on particular circumstances, e.g., geographically diversified wind, high offshore wind, high transmission, etc. 风电在能源结构中（依据发电量）占比递增的多种不同情景 起始基年(比如有全套数据的当年或上一年) 至少包含风电比例很高的一种情景(比如30% 或 40%) 着重考虑特殊情况下的一些情景, 如地理分布较为分散的风电, 有较多的海上风电,较大的送电需求等 Scenarios情景 Include multiple scenarios of increasing wind penetration, by energy Start with base year (i.e., current year or the last year with most complete set of data) Include at least one scenario with very high wind penetration (e.g., 30% or 40%) Consider scenarios focused on particular circumstances, e.g., geographically diversified wind, high offshore wind, high transmission, etc. Exeter Associates, Inc. * 风电在能源结构中（依据发电量）占比递增的多种不同情景 起始基年(比如有全套数据的当年或上一年) 至少包含风电比率很高的一种情景(比如30% 或 40%) 着重考虑特殊情况下的一些情景, 如地理分布较为分散的风电, 有较多的海上风电,较大的送电需求等 Scenarios (2)情景（2） * Exeter Associates, Inc. Escalate generation (including wind) and load data by annual constant percentage to get to future year (e.g., 2%) Don’t project too far out into the future, as it may be difficult to control all the potential variables Studies typically forecast out 10 years May need to add generation over study projection years to maintain reliability U.S. studies typically add gas turbines as proxy 基于年度固定百分比（如2%）逐步升高的发电量 (包括风电)和负荷数据 不要把预测的期限定的太远, 因为很多潜在的变量是难以控制的 一般来说研究预测的期限是10年左右 为保持可靠性，可能需要在预测研究的基础上再增加发电量 美国这边的研究通常以天然气发电量的增长来代表 Sensitivity Studies敏感度研究 * Exeter Associates, Inc. May wish to do several sensitivity studies Different natural gas and coal prices Different fuel mixes Higher or lower projected electricity demand More demand response Plug-in electric vehicles Different turnback capabilities for coal units Differing levels of hydro flexi