基于模糊贴近度的震后恢复预测模型——以日本地震经济恢复为例.docVIP

Finance金融, 2012, 2, 1-8 /10.12677/fin.2012.21001 Published Online January 2012 (/journal/fin) A Forecast Model Based on Fuzzy Approach for the Recovery in Economy after the Earthquake* ——Illustrated by the Case in Predicting the Recovery in Japanese Economy after the Earthquake Ke Huang, Yakun Liu, Guowen Han School of Economy and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan Email: gwhan68@ Received: Oct. 6th, 2011; revised: Oct. 24th, 2011; accepted: Nov. 5th, 2011 Abstract: At present, it lacks systematic quantitative forecasting models for the recovery in economy after the earthquake. On the other hand, only when the government makes a precise predication for the recovery of the earthquake could it have a sound and correct analysis on the earthquake to undertake proper practices for the reconstructing project after the earthquake. Therefore, after taking the similarity among disasters through- out the procedure of reconstruction into account, we establish the forecasting model via comparing several earthquakes which share most common with the target one. In addition, the degree of similarity in fuzzy mathematics is introduced here. In the empirical analysis section, the recent Japanese earthquake is used to illustrate the exactness of the model. The result of the empirical analysis shows a strong similarity between the real data and our forecasting ones. Last, in order to prove the importance for our model in the government policy after the earthquake, we thoroughly analyze the earthquake effect on our country under the section of manufacturing, energy and investment based on the economy as a whole and the main economic indictors’ recovery computed from our model. Keywords: Earthquake Forecast; Fuzzy Mathematics; Principal Component Analysis (PCA) 基于模糊贴近度的震后恢复预测模型* ——以日本地震经济恢复为例 黄 珂，刘亚坤，韩国文 武汉大学经济与管理学院，武汉 Email: gwhan68@ 收稿日期：2011年 10月 6日；修回日期：2011年 10月 24日；录用日期：2011年 11月 5日 摘 要：现阶段，对地震恢复的预测往往缺乏系统的量化预测机制。能否有效地对地震