Application of Improved Analysis of Variance to Ionospheric TEC Short-Term Forecast英文文献资料.docVIP

Positioning, 2011, 2, 55-60 doi:10.4236/pos.2011.21005 Published Online February 2011 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/pos) Application of Improved Analysis of Variance to Ionospheric TEC Short-Term Forecast Yan Gong , Yamin Dang 1 1,2 1 2 Chinese Academy of Surveying and Mapping, Beijing, China; Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, China. Email: gongy1985@163.com, dangym@ Received December 8 , 2010; revised December 27 , 2010; accepted January 17 , 2011. th th th ABSTRACT An improved superposition analysis of periodical wave variance is used for short-term forecast of the ionosphere TEC in this study. Using the ionospheric TEC data provided by IGS as the real value, the forecasting precision of this me- thod at different locations in China with 40 days data is evaluated. The result shows that the improved method has a better forecasting precision which could reach 1.1 TECU. But the forecasting precision still relates to geographical position, it is proportional to longitude and inversely proportional to latitude. Compared with the current-used methods, the improved method has many advantages as higher precision, using fewer parameters and easier to calculate. So, it applied to ionosphere short-term prediction in China very well. Keywords: Ionosphere, TEC, Short-Term Forecast, Variance Analysis, Cycle Superposition 1. Introduction short-term. Although some research has been done in short-term forecasting modeling, a practical approach hasn’t been achieved so far. In order to improve the performance of radio systems, such as communication system, positioning system, radar, navigation et al, and to ensure the safety of space flight, much more precise forecast of ionosphere is becoming indispensable. Short-term forecast w