An Age-Structured Extension to the Vectorial Capacity Model 英文参考文献.docVIP

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An Age-Structured Extension to the Vectorial Capacity Model 英文参考文献.doc

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An Age-Structured Extension to the Vectorial Capacity Model 英文参考文献

AnAge-StructuredExtensiontotheVectorialCapacity Model VasiliyN.Novoseltsev1,AnatoliI.Michalski1*,JannaA.Novoseltseva1,AnatoliyI.Yashin2, JamesR.Carey3,AliciaM.Ellis4 1InstituteofControlSciences,Moscow,Russia,2DukeUniversity,Durham,NorthCarolina,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3DepartmentofEntomology,UniversityofCalifornia atDavis,Davis,California,UnitedStatesofAmerica,4FogartyInternationalCenter,NationalInstitutesofHealth,Bethesda,Maryland,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background: Vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number (R0) have been instrumental in structuring thinking aboutvector-bornepathogentransmissionandhowbesttopreventthediseasestheycause.Oneofthemoreimportant simplifyingassumptionsofthesemodelsisage-independentvectormortality.Agrowingbodyofevidenceindicatesthat insect vectors exhibit age-dependent mortality, which can have strong and varied affects on pathogen transmission dynamicsandstrategiesfordiseaseprevention. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:BasedonsurvivalanalysiswederivednewequationsforvectorialcapacityandR0thatare valid for any pattern of age-dependent (or age–independent) vector mortality and explore the behavior of the models acrossvariousmortalitypatterns.Theframeworkwepresent(1)laysthegroundworkforanextensionandrefinementofthe vectorialcapacityparadigmbyintroducinganage-structuredextensiontothemodel,(2)encouragesfurtherresearchon theactuarialdynamicsofvectorsinparticularandtherelationshipofvectormortalitytopathogentransmissioningeneral, and (3) provides a detailed quantitative basis for understanding the relative impact of reductions in vector longevity comparedtoothervector-bornediseasepreventionstrategies. Conclusions/Significance: Accounting for age-dependent vector mortality in estimates of vectorial capacity and R0 was mostimportantwhen(1)vectordensitiesarerelativelylowandthepatternofmortalitycandeterminewhetherpathogen transmissionwillpersist;i.e.,determineswhetherR0isaboveorbelow1,(2)vectorpopulationgrowthrateisrelativelylow andthere