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Estimating and Mapping the Population at Risk of Sleeping Sickness 英文参考文献
EstimatingandMappingthePopulationatRiskof
SleepingSickness
PereP.Simarro1*.,GiulianoCecchi2.,Jose′ R.Franco1,MassimoPaone2,AbdoulayeDiarra3,Jose′
AntonioRuiz-Postigo4,EricM.Fe`vre5,RaffaeleC.Mattioli2,JeanG.Jannin1
1Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, Innovative and Intensified Disease Management, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2Animal Production and
Health Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy, 3Regional Office for Africa, World Health Organization, Brazzaville, Congo,
4RegionalOfficefortheEasternMediterranean,WorldHealthOrganization,Cairo,Egypt,5CentreforImmunity,InfectionandEvolution,InstituteofImmunologyand
InfectionResearch,SchoolofBiologicalSciences,AshworthLaboratories,UniversityofEdinburgh,Edinburgh,UnitedKingdom
Abstract
Background:HumanAfricantrypanosomiasis(HAT),alsoknownassleepingsickness,persistsasapublichealthproblemin
several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform
planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy.
Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human
populationlayerstomapfivecategoriesofrisk,rangingfrom‘‘veryhigh’’to‘‘verylow,’’andtoestimatethecorresponding
at-riskpopulation.
Results: Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km2 are estimated to be at different
levelsofriskofcontractingHAT.Trypanosomabruceigambienseaccountsfor82.2%ofthepopulationatrisk,theremaining
17.8%beingatriskofinfectionfromT.b.rhodesiense.Twenty-onemillionpeopleliveinareasclassifiedasmoderatetovery
highrisk,wheremorethan1HATcaseper10,000inhabitantsperannumisreported.
Discussion:Updatedestimatesofthepopulationatriskofsleepingsicknessweremade,basedonquantitativeinformation
onthereportedcasesandthegeographicdistributionofhumanpopulation.Duetosubstantialmethodologicaldifferences,
it
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