Estimating HIV Incidence among Adults in Kenya and Uganda A Systematic Comparison of Multiple Methods 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Estimating HIV Incidence among Adults in Kenya and Uganda A Systematic Comparison of Multiple Methods 英文参考文献.doc

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Estimating HIV Incidence among Adults in Kenya and Uganda A Systematic Comparison of Multiple Methods 英文参考文献

EstimatingHIVIncidenceamongAdultsinKenyaand Uganda:ASystematicComparisonofMultipleMethods AndreaA.Kim1*,TimothyHallett2,JohnStover3,EleanorGouws4,JoshuaMusinguzi5,PatrickK. Mureithi6,RebeccaBunnell7,JohnHargrove8,JonathanMermin7,ReinhardK.Kaiser7,AnneBarsigo9, PeterD.Ghys4 1HHS-Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America, 2Imperial College, London, England, United Kingdom, 3Futures Institute, Glastonbury, Connecticut, United States ofAmerica, 4Joint United Nations Programme onHIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), Geneva, Switzerland, 5Uganda Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda, 6National AIDS Control Council, Nairobi, Kenya, 7HHS-Centers forDisease Control andPrevention, Nairobi, Kenya, 8DST/NRF Centre of Excellence inEpidemiological Modeling and Analysis, SACEMA, Stellenbosch, South Africa, 9National AIDS and STD Control Programme, Kenya Ministry ofHealth, Nairobi, Kenya Abstract Background: Several approaches have been used for measuring HIV incidence in large areas, yet each presents specific challengesinincidenceestimation. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:WepresentacomparisonofincidenceestimatesforKenyaandUgandausingmultiple methods:1)EpidemicProjectionsPackage(EPP)andSpectrummodelsfittedtoHIVprevalencefromantenatalclinics(ANC) andnationalpopulation-basedsurveys(NPS)inKenya(2003,2007)andUganda(2004/2005);2)asurvey-derivedmodelto infer age-specific incidence between two sequential NPS; 3) an assay-derived measurement in NPS using the BED IgG captureenzymeimmunoassay,adjustedformisclassificationusingalocallyderivedfalse-recentrate(FRR)fortheassay;(4) communitycohortsinUganda;(5)prevalencetrendsinyoungANCattendees.EPP/Spectrum-derivedandsurvey-derived modeledestimatesweresimilar:0.67[uncertaintyrange:0.60,0.74]and0.6[confidenceinterval:(CI)0.4,0.9],respectively, forUganda(2005)and0.72[uncertaintyrange:0.70,0.74]and0.7[CI0.3,1.1],respectively,forKenya(2007).Usingalocal FRR, assay-derived incidence estimates were 0.3[CI 0.0, 0.9] for Uganda (2