Genetic Diversity in the SIR Model of Pathogen Evolution 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Genetic Diversity in the SIR Model of Pathogen Evolution 英文参考文献.doc

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Genetic Diversity in the SIR Model of Pathogen Evolution 英文参考文献

GeneticDiversityintheSIRModelofPathogenEvolution IsabelGordo1*,M.GabrielaM.Gomes1,2,DanielG.Reis1,PauloR.A.Campos3 1InstitutoGulbenkiandeCie?ncia,Oeiras,Portugal,2CentrodeMatema′tica eAplicac?o?esFundamentais,UniversidadedeLisboa,Lisboa,Portugal,3Departamento de F?′sica,UniversidadeFederalRuraldePernambuco,Recife-PE,Brazil Abstract We introduce a model for assessing the levels and patterns of genetic diversity in pathogen populations, whose epidemiology follows a susceptible-infected-recovered model (SIR). We model the population of pathogens as a metapopulation composed of subpopulations (infected hosts), where pathogens replicate and mutate. Hosts transmit pathogenstouninfectedhosts.Weshowthatthelevelofpathogenvariationiswellpredictedbyanalyticalexpressions, such that pathogen neutral molecular variation is bounded by the level of infection and increases with the duration of infection.Wethenintroduceselectioninthemodelandstudytheinvasionprobabilityofanewpathogenicstrainwhose fitness(R0(1+s))ishigherthanthefitnessoftheresidentstrain(R0).Weshowthatthisinvasionprobabilityisgivenbythe relativeincrementinR0ofthenewpathogen(s).Byanalyzingthepatternsofgeneticdiversityinthisframework,weidentify themolecularsignaturesduringthereplacementandcomparethesewiththoseobservedinsequencesofinfluenzaA. Citation: Gordo I, Gomes MGM, Reis DG, Campos PRA (2009) Genetic Diversity in the SIR Model of Pathogen Evolution. PLoS ONE 4(3): e4876. doi:10.1371/ journal.pone.0004876 Editor:RobertDeSalle,AmericanMuseumofNaturalHistory,UnitedStatesofAmerica ReceivedOctober1,2008;AcceptedJanuary21,2009;PublishedMarch16,2009 Copyright: ? 2009 Gordo et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricteduse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalauthorandsourcearecredited. Funding:WethankthePortugueseResearchCouncil(FCT)forfinancialsupportthroughPTDC/BIA-BDE/65276/2006.WethankFCTofPortug