Projecting Global Land-Use Change and Its Effect on Ecosystem Service Provision and Biodiversity with Simple Models 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Projecting Global Land-Use Change and Its Effect on Ecosystem Service Provision and Biodiversity with Simple Models 英文参考文献.doc

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Projecting Global Land-Use Change and Its Effect on Ecosystem Service Provision and Biodiversity with Simple Models 英文参考文献

ProjectingGlobalLand-UseChangeandItsEffecton EcosystemServiceProvisionandBiodiversitywith SimpleModels ErikNelson1*,HeatherSander2¤,PeterHawthorne3,MarcConte1,DrissEnnaanay1,StacieWolny1, StevenManson4,StephenPolasky2,5 1TheNaturalCapitalProject,WoodsInstitutefortheEnvironment,StanfordUniversity,Stanford,California,UnitedStatesofAmerica,2ConservationBiologyGraduate Program, University of Minnesota,St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America, 3Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota,UnitedStatesofAmerica,4DepartmentofGeography,UniversityofMinnesota,Minneapolis,Minnesota,UnitedStatesofAmerica,5DepartmentofApplied Economics,UniversityofMinnesota,St.Paul,Minnesota,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background:Astheglobalhumanpopulationgrowsanditsconsumptionpatternschange,additionallandwillbeneeded for living space and agricultural production. A critical question facing global society is how to meet growing human demandsforlivingspace,food,fuel,andothermaterialswhilesustainingecosystemservicesandbiodiversity[1]. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:Wespatiallyallocatetwoscenariosof2000to2015globalarealchangeinurbanlandand cropland at the grid cell-level and measure the impact of this change on the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The models and techniques used to spatially allocate land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and evaluate its impactonecosystemsarerelativelysimpleandtransparent[2].Thedifferenceinthemagnitudeandpatternofcropland expansionacrossthetwoscenariosengendersdifferenttradeoffsamongcropproduction,provisionofspecieshabitat,and other important ecosystem services such as biomass carbon storage. For example, in one scenario, 5.2 grams of carbon storedinbiomassisreleasedforeveryadditionalcalorieofcropproducedacrosstheglobe;undertheotherscenariothis tradeoffrateis13.7.Bycomparingscenariosandtheirimpactswecanbegintoidentifytheglobalpatternofcroplandand irrigationdevelopmentthatissignificantenoughtomeetfu