Rural to Urban Migration Is an Unforeseen Impact of Development Intervention in Ethiopia 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Rural to Urban Migration Is an Unforeseen Impact of Development Intervention in Ethiopia 英文参考文献.doc

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RuraltoUrbanMigrationIsanUnforeseenImpactof DevelopmentInterventioninEthiopia MhairiA.Gibson1*,EshetuGurmu2 1DepartmentofArchaeologyandAnthropology,UniversityofBristol,Bristol,UnitedKingdom,2CenterofPopulationStudies,CollegeofDevelopmentStudies,Addis AbabaUniversity,AddisAbaba,Ethiopia Abstract Ruraldevelopmentinitiativesacrossthedevelopingworldaredesignedtoimprovecommunitywell-beingandlivelihoods. However they may also have unforeseen consequences, in some cases placing further demands on stretched public services.InthispaperweusedatafromalongitudinalstudyoffiveEthiopianvillagestoinvestigatetheimpactofarecent ruraldevelopmentinitiative,installingvillage-levelwatertaps,onruraltourbanmigrationofyoungadults.Ourprevious researchhasidentifiedthattapstandsdramaticallyreducedchildmortality,butwerealsoassociatedwithincreasedfertility. We demonstrate that the installation of taps is associated with increased rural-urban migration of young adults (15–30 years)overa15yearperiod(15.5%migrateout,n=1912from1280ruralhouseholds).Youngadultswithaccesstothisrural developmentinterventionhadthreetimestherelativeriskofmigratingtourbancentrescomparedtothosewithoutthe development.Wealsoidentifythatfamilydynamics,specificallysiblingcompetitionforlimitedhouseholdresources(e.g. food,heritablelandandmarriageopportunities),arekeytounderstandingthetimingofout-migration.Birthofayounger siblingdoubledtheoddsofout-migrationandstartingmarriedlifereducedit.Ruralout-migrationappearstobearesponse to increasing rural resource scarcity, principally competition for agricultural land. Strategies for livelihood diversification includeeducationandoff-farmcasualwage-labour.However,jobsandservicesarelimitedinurbancentres,fewmigrants send large cash remittances back to their families, and most return to their villages within one year without advanced qualifications.Onebenefitforreturningmigrantsmaybethroughenhancedsocialprestigeandmate-acquisitiononreturn toruralareas.Thesefindingshavewideimplicationsforcur