Sensitivity Analysis of CLIMEX Parameters in Modelling Potential Distribution of Lantana camara L. 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Sensitivity Analysis of CLIMEX Parameters in Modelling Potential Distribution of Lantana camara L. 英文参考文献.doc

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Sensitivity Analysis of CLIMEX Parameters in Modelling Potential Distribution of Lantana camara L. 英文参考文献

SensitivityAnalysisofCLIMEXParametersinModelling PotentialDistributionofLantanacamaraL. SubhashniTaylor*,LalitKumar EcosystemManagement,SchoolofEnvironmentalandRuralScience,UniversityofNewEngland,Armidale,NewSouthWales,Australia Abstract A process-based niche model of L. camara L. (lantana), a highly invasive shrub species, was developed to estimate its potential distribution using CLIMEX. Model development was carried out using its native and invasive distribution and validation was carried out with the extensive Australian distribution. A good fit was observed, with 86.7% of herbarium specimens collected in Australia occurring within the suitable and highly suitable categories. A sensitivity analysis was conductedtoidentifythemodelparametersthathadthemostinfluenceonlantanadistribution.Thechangesinsuitability were assessed by mapping the regions where the distribution changed with each parameter alteration. This allowed an assessmentofwhere,withinAustralia,themodificationofeachparameterwashavingthemostimpact,particularlyinterms of the suitable and highly suitable locations. The sensitivity of various parameters was also evaluated by calculating the changes in area within the suitable and highly suitable categories. The limiting low temperature (DV0), limiting high temperature(DV3)andlimitinglowsoilmoisture(SM0)showedhighestsensitivitytochange.Theothermodelparameters wererelativelyinsensitivetochange.Highlysensitiveparametersrequireextensiveresearchanddatacollectiontobefitted accuratelyinspeciesdistributionmodels.Theresultsfromthisstudycaninformmorecosteffectivedevelopmentofspecies distributionmodelsforlantana.Suchmodelsformanintegralpartofthemanagementofinvasivespeciesandtheresults canbeusedtostreamlinedatacollectionrequirementsforpotentialdistributionmodelling. Citation:TaylorS,KumarL(2012)SensitivityAnalysisofCLIMEXParametersinModellingPotentialDistributionofLantanacamaraL.PLoSONE7(7):e40969. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0040969 Editor:DonA.Driscoll,TheAustralianNa