Sensitivity of Household Transmission to Household Contact Structure and Size 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Sensitivity of Household Transmission to Household Contact Structure and Size 英文参考文献.doc

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SensitivityofHouseholdTransmissiontoHousehold ContactStructureandSize AchlaMarathe1,2*,BryanLewis1,JiangzhuoChen1,StephenEubank1,3 1Network Dynamics and Simulation Sciences Lab, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute at Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America, 2Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States ofAmerica, 3Department of Physics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg,Virginia, United StatesofAmerica Abstract Objective:Studytheinfluenceofhouseholdcontactstructureonthespreadofaninfluenza-likeillness.Examinewhether changestoin-homecaregivingarrangementscansignificantlyaffectthehouseholdtransmissioncounts. Method: We simulate two different behaviors for the symptomatic person; either s/he remains at home in contact with everyoneelseinthehouseholdors/heremainsathomeincontactwithonlytheprimarycaregiverinthehousehold.The twodifferentcasesarereferredtoasfullmixingandsinglecaregiver ,respectively. Results: The results show that the household’s cumulative transmission count is lower in case of a single caregiver configurationthaninthefullmixingcase.Thehouseholdtransmissionsvaryalmostlinearlywiththehouseholdsizeinboth singlecaregiverandfullmixingcases.Howeverthedifferenceinhouseholdtransmissionsduetothedifferenceinhousehold structuregrowswiththehouseholdsizeespeciallyincaseofmoderateflu. Conclusions: These results suggest that details about human behavior and household structure do matter in epidemiological models. The policy of home isolation of the sick has significant effect on the household transmission countdependinguponthehouseholdsize. Citation:MaratheA,LewisB,ChenJ,EubankS(2011)SensitivityofHouseholdTransmissiontoHouseholdContactStructureandSize.PLoSONE6(8):e22461. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0022461 Editor:BenjaminJ.Cowling,UniversityofHongKong,HongKong ReceivedMarch16,2011;AcceptedJune27,2011;PublishedAugust1,2011 Thisisanopen-accessarticle,freeofallcopyright,andmaybefreelyreproduced,distributed,