Social Contact Networks and Disease Eradicability under Voluntary Vaccination 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Social Contact Networks and Disease Eradicability under Voluntary Vaccination 英文参考文献.doc

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Social Contact Networks and Disease Eradicability under Voluntary Vaccination 英文参考文献

SocialContactNetworksandDiseaseEradicabilityunder VoluntaryVaccination AnaPerisic,ChrisT.Bauch* DepartmentofMathematicsandStatistics,UniversityofGuelph,Guelph,Ontario,Canada Abstract Certaintheoriessuggestthatitshouldbedifficultorimpossibletoeradicateavaccine-preventablediseaseundervoluntary vaccination:Herdimmunityimpliesthattheindividualincentivetovaccinatedisappearsathighcoveragelevels.Historically, therehavebeenexamplesofdecliningcoverageforvaccines,suchasMMRvaccineandwhole-cellpertussisvaccine,that areconsistentwiththistheory.Ontheotherhand,smallpoxwasgloballyeradicatedby1980despitevoluntaryvaccination policies in many jurisdictions. Previous modeling studies of the interplay between disease dynamics and individual vaccinatingbehaviorhaveassumedthatinfectionistransmittedinahomogeneouslymixingpopulation.Bycomparison, herewesimulatetransmissionofavaccine-preventableSEIRinfectionthrougharandom,staticcontactnetwork.Individuals choosewhethertovaccinatebasedoninfectionrisksfromneighbors,andbasedonvaccinerisks.Whenneighborhoodsize issmall,rationalvaccinatingbehaviorresultsinrapidcontainmentoftheinfectionthroughvoluntaryringvaccination.As neighborhoodsizeincreases(whiletheaverageforceofinfectionisheldconstant),athresholdisreachedbeyondwhichthe infection can break through partially vaccinated rings, percolating through the whole population and resulting in considerable epidemicfinalsizesandalargenumbervaccinated. Theformeroutcomerepresentsconvergencebetween individuallyandsociallyoptimaloutcomes,whereasthelatterrepresentstheirdivergence,asobservedinmostmodelsof individualvaccinatingbehaviorthatassumehomogeneousmixing.Similareffectsareobservedinanextendedmodelusing smallpox-specificnaturalhistoryandtransmissibilityassumptions.Thisworkillustratesthesignificantqualitativedifferences between behavior–infection dynamics in discrete contact-structured populations versus continuous unstructured populations. This work also shows how disease eradicability in populations w