随机增长模型中的资本流动性与政策风险.pdfVIP

系统工程理论与实践 Vo 1.33 , No.l 第 33 卷第 1 期 2013 年 1 月 Systems Engineering - Theory Practice Jan. , 2013 文章编号: 1000-6788(2013)01-0061-11 中图分类号: F11 文献标志码:A 随机增长模型中的资本流动性与政策风险 王雪标，高海燕，王新翠，周生宝 (东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院经济计量分析与预测研究中心，大连 116025) 摘要本文利用具有资本流动的扩展随机动态均衡模型，分别在资本流动、国内利率、国内产出 波动、外国利率、外国价格波动的条件下，通过数值分析，探讨了货币财政政策及其所伴随的风险 对增长率、产出波动率、通胀率、汇率、货币需求、货币替代的政策效果.研究结果表明，货币财 政政策的有效性随着资本流动、国内利率、外国利率、外国价格波动而变化.对于较低的国内利率， 资本流动性显著影响货币财政政策对增长率、产出波动、通胀率和汇率的作用效果.对于较高的国 内利率，资本流动性不影响货币财政政策对增长率和产出波动的作用效果.低产出波动国家中资本 流动对货币财政政策作用效果的影响与高产出波动国家的相同. 关键词资本流动;政策风险;随机增长;数值分析 Capital mobility and policy risk in a stochastic growth model WANG Xue-biaο， GAO Hai-yan , WANG Xin-cui , ZHOU Sheng-bao (Center for Econometric Analysis and Forecasting , School of Mathematics and Quantitative Economics , Dongbei University of Finance and Economics , Dalian 116025, China) Abstract This paper numerically analyzed the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies , and their associated risks , on growth rate , product volatility , inflation rate , exchange rate , monetary demand and monetary substitution under capital mobility, domestic interest rate , product volatility, foreign interest rate and foreign pricing volatility respectively by using an extended equilibrium in a stochastic dynamic optimal model with capital flows. The research results show that the effective of the monetary policy and fiscal policy change with capital flows , domestic interest rate , foreign interest rate and foreign pricing volatility. Monetary and fiscal policies have significant effects on growth rate , pro