牡丹初花期与太平洋海温关系与`预报探析.doc

牡丹初花期与太平洋海温关系及预报分析 　　摘要 对牡丹初花期和太平洋海温资料进行统计分析得出：牡丹初花期偏早和偏晚年份其前期太平洋海温场有明显差异；用1964―2009年牡丹初花期序列与太平洋海温进行相关分析，得到30个优势相关区，其中有4个是正相关区，其余为负相关区，正、负相关区出现有一定的时间连续性和区域性，正相关区出现于冬季太平洋北部高纬地区，负相关区出现于赤道北太平洋海区东部并向西向北传播；从优势相关区中筛选格点资料作为预报因子，建立牡丹初花期长期预报方程，最长预报时效超过140 d。经几年试用效果较好，本方法对制作花卉花期长期预报有一定参考价值 关键词 牡丹初花期；太平洋海温场；相关区；长期预报；山东菏泽 中图分类号 S162.5+5 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-5739（2016）17-0188-03 Abstract Statistical analysis was conducted on the historical data of the florescence of peony，and the sea surface temperature（SST）of the Pacific Ocean. It is found that，the Pacific SST field before peony florescence showed great difference from the year when peony had an early florescence to the year when peony had a delayed florescence. Correlation analysis over the data of peony florescence and the Pacific SST from 1964 to 2009 showed thirty regions with strong correlation，of which four were positive correlation，and the rest were negative. The correlated regions appear on specific locations in the Pacific over a certain period of time. The positively correlated regions occur in high latitude area of the Pacific during winter，while the negatively correlated regions showed up in the east part of the north Pacific near the equator，and spread towards the west and the north. Equations for long-term forecast of peony florescence were constructed，based on the forecast factors derived from the data of highly relevant regions. The effective forecast period of current model is over 140 days. The model is validated through comparison with data in the past few years，and showed good performance in long-term forecast of the florescence of flowers. Key words peony florescence；Pacific SST field；correlated regions；long-term forecast；Heze Shandong 菏泽以牡丹驰名中外，明代就有“曹州牡丹甲天下”之称。目前菏泽市牡丹种植面积为5 333 hm2，分九大花系，十大花型，1 600余个品种，是世界上最大的牡丹生产栽培中心和观赏基地[1]。1992―2014年已成功举办23届国际牡丹花会，对扩大菏泽市知名度，促进经济发展起到了很好的推动作用。但是由于牡丹初花期时间短，并且每年开放日期相差较大，多年来，牡丹花会举办日期是否正逢牡丹初花期对办好牡丹花会造成严重困扰。根据目前有关花卉花期预报方法研究现状[2-6]，大多是根据前期气象条件进行花期预报，这种途径预报花期时效太短，如果预报