关键链的随机性及在工程项目工期优化中应用研究.pdfVIP

Vo l. 47 No .4 西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版) 第47 卷第4 期 2015 年8 月 J. Xian Univ. of Arch. Tech. (Natural Science Edition) Aug.2015 DOI: 10. 15986/j. 1006-7930.2015.04.026 关键链的随机性及在工程项目工期优化中应用研究 闰文周，刘振超，任格叶 (西安建筑科技大学管理学院，陕西西安 7100555) 摘要z 关键链在考虑资源约束条件下，较关键线路法具有显著的优越性，但由于受到各种不确定因素的影响，使得工序作业 时间表现出随机性，从而导致关键链具有随机性.在采用传统方法识别出关键链基础上，应用期望与方差的性质和同分布中 心极限定理，研究了关键链的期望工期和分布规律，以及在某指定工期下的完工概率.当有多条关键链时，选择完工概率最 小的关键链作为重点控制对象.此方法对关键链的应用具有重要的指导意义. 关键i司E 关键链;随机性;王期优化;资源约束 中固分类号: TU723.1 文献标志码:A 文章编号: 1006-7930(2015)04-0609-3 The randomness of the critical chain and its application in the optimization of engineering projects YAN Wenzhou , LIU Zhenchao , REN Geye (School of Management , Xian University ofArchitecture Technology , Xian 710055 , China) Abstract: The critical chain is obviously superior to the critical route method when considering the resource constraint. However, due to the inf1uence of various uncertainties , the operation time is random , which leads to the random of the critical chain .Traditional method to identif旨 the critical chain , based on the application of expectations and variance of the nature and the same distribution center limit theorem , to study the expected duration and distribution of the critical chain, as well as the probability of the completion of a specified period. When there are many critical chains , the key control object is the critical chain of the least completion probability. This method has important guidance for the application of critical chain. Key words: the critical chain; randomness; time optimization; resurce constraints 项目实施过程中，经常会出现资源冲突现象， 题以及任务之间逻辑关系等因素对项目进度进行 影响