股票外汇技术分析英文版(46).ppt

Seasonal Sector Trading Tactics:Using Technical Timing Tools toMaximize Profits in Historical Seasonal Patterns Jeffrey A. Hirsch President of the Hirsch Organization Editor-in-Chief Stock Trader’s Almanac Seasonalities Since 1966 Teamed up with Wiley Focus on Content 43rd Stock Trader’s Almanac 4th Commodity Trader’s Almanac Almanac Investor: Web, Alerts, Blog, Twitter, LinkedIn Brand New Revamped Site e-Delivery ETF Lab Almanac Investor Book Series Almanac Investing Philosophy Those who study market history are bound to profit from it. 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle Seasonality War The Markets Recurring Patterns Current Trends Fundamentals Technicals Market Internals Economy “Early in March (1960),Dr. Arthur F. Burns called on me…Burns’ conclusion was that unless somedecisive action was taken, and taken soon,we were heading for another economic dipwhich would hit its low point in October,just before the elections.” — Richard M. Nixon (37th U.S. President,Six Crises, 1913-1994) 4-Year Election Cycle 177-Year Saga Gov’t Manipulates Economy Prime Pump 3rd Year Most gains in2nd half of term Post Midterm Bear Markets Dirty Work Early Midterm Bottoms No Bottom 1986 2006 Cycle Is Back Bottom Pickers Paradise 1934 Dow –23% Feb-July Worse for Democrats Worse for Democrats 18 Bull Bears Since 1953 Only 5 Bottoms in Pre- or Election 8 Tops Midterm Worst for Democrats Dems Reclaim After Econ Duress Bottom Pickers Paradise Often During Crisis 2009 Paid Right Away May Pay Again in 2010 Unmet Promises 9 of 14 Bears Since 1961 Ended in Midterm Bottom Why A 50% Gain Median = 50.6% High = 89.6% Low = 14.5% 6 Jan Midterm Lows (25%) 4 Oct Midterm Lows (16.7%) Plus Oct Lows in 1962, 1974, 1978, 1998 9 Dec Pre-Elect Highs (37.5%) 6 Highs Last Day (16.7%) Financial Crises Impact Special Feature in 2010 STA Longer Recovery Time Likely, Already 2.5 Years But 50% Move could give us New High in 2011 Ten Worst Bear Markets Same Page as Crises Only WWII Averted Recession