人口年龄结构变动对基本养老保险基金缺口影响探究.docVIP

人口年龄结构变动对基本养老保险基金缺口影响探究摘 要:为了揭示人口年龄结构变动与基本养老保险基金缺口的相关关系,本文首先运用微分方程理论描述了人口年龄结构对基本养老保险基金缺口影响的作用机理;然后在离散状态下,构建了人口年龄结构预测模型和基本养老保险基金缺口预测模型,并结合陕西省生育政策及相关数据资料,在低出生率方案和高出生率方案下,对2007~2050年陕西省基本养老保险基金收支及缺口进行了数值模拟与比较研究。研究发现,高出生率方案下测算的基本养老保险基金缺口小于低出生率方案的测算结果,两者累计相差375.5366亿元。 关键词:人口年龄结构;基本养老保险;基金缺口 中图分类号:F840.67 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1003-5192(2010)02-0037-05 Quantitative Analysis on Change of Age Structure to the Fund Gap on China Basic Pension Insurance: A Case of Shaanxi Province ZHANG Si-feng?1, WANG Li-jian?2, ZHANG Wen-xue?1 (1.School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China; 2.Scool of Humanities Social Sciences, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China) Abstract:In order to demonstrate the associative relationship between change of age structure and the fund gap on china?s basic pension insurance, this article has first used the differential equation to describe the mechanism of action between change of age structure and the fund gap; and then constructed the forecast model of population age structure and the fund gap on basic pension insurance under discrete state. Based on which and the author combining with birth policies and correlation data in Shaanxi province to do some numerical simulation and comparison to basic pension insurance fund revenue, expenditure and the gap of Shanxi province from 2007 to 2050 according to the high birth rate plan and the low birth rate plan. The conclusion showed that the basic pension insurance fund gap according to the high birth rate plan is less than the calculated result according to low birth rate plan, both of them has differed in accumulation with 37,553,660,000 Yuan. Key words:age structure; basic pension insurance; fund gap 1 引言 1997年,国务院颁布的《关于建立统一的企业职工基本养老保险制度的决定》[1]标志着我国基本养老保险“统账结合”模式的形成。在这一模式下,1998~2007年全国基本养老保险基金累计结存7391亿元;但是,在这10年间,平均每月支付养老金268.68亿元,而基本养老保险基金平均每年的结存额只有739.1亿元,仅能够支付2.75个月的养老金,低于国际上公认的储备水平[2]。据预测,至2075年,我国基本养老保险基金缺口将累计达到9.15万亿元[3],严重威胁