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c Journal of Applied Mathematics Decision Sciences, 4(2), 175{182 (2000) Reprints Available directly from the Editor. Printed in New Zealand. Can we prevent the next epidemic? The elimination of childho o d diseases by mass vaccination M.G. ROBERTS rob ertsm@agresearch.cri.nz AgResearch, Wal lacevil le Animal Research Centre, P.O.Box 40063, Upper Hutt, New Zealand Abstract. Recently in New Zealand there have b een outbreaks of measles and p ertussis every six and ve years resp ectively. A mo del has b een used to compare the dynamics of these diseases, and to determine the optimum ages at which children should b e vaccinated against them. Whereas measles could b e eliminated by giving the second vaccination at ve years instead of eleven, it is diÆcult to devise a practical scheme that would eliminate p ertussis. It is then necessary to consider vaccination schemes in the light of the age-structure of future epidemics as well as their timing. 1. Intro duction The childho o d diseases that are controlled by vaccination programmes in New Zealand include measles, mumps, rub ella and p ertussis (commonly known as who op- ing cough) (Manso or, 1999). Protection against the rst three is via MMR vacci- nation at 15 months and eleven years, whereas four vaccinations against p ertussis are given prior to 15 months. Despite these interventions epidemics of measles and p ertussis still o ccur. A quantity that is commonly used as an aid to understanding the p opulation dynamics of an infectious disease is the basic repro duction ratio (R ) : This is