socio-economic development and primary energy sources substitution towards decarbonization社会经济发展对脱碳和初级能源替代.pdfVIP

Low Carbon Economy, 2011, 2, 49-53 doi:10.4236/lce.2011.22008 Published Online June 2011 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/lce) Socio-Economic Development and Primary Energy Sources Substitution towards Decarbonization João Carlos de Oliveira Matias, Tessaleno Campos Devezas 1Technological Forecasting and Industrial Management Research Group (TeFIM) Covilhã, Portugal; 2Department of Electrome- chanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, Covilhã, Portugal. Email: matias@ubi.pt; tessalen@ubi.pt Received March 1st, 2011; revised April 15th, 2011; accepted May 10th, 2011. ABSTRACT Scanning the last 250 years, we can observe five great technological transformations that happened in the socio-eco- nomic development. On the other hand, there is a relationship between the socio-economic development and the substi- tution process of primary energy sources. Since the industrial revolution, there has been a smooth but growing substitu- tion among primary energy sources. First the switch from wood to coal, then this last one by oil and natural gas. These are non-solid fossils, which leads to a decrease of the carbonic intensity. These substitutions implied some important technological transformations. Bearing in mind a sustainable development of energy systems and using technological forecasting tolls, this study points out to the leadership of the alternative energies among the primary energy sources until 2050-2070. In this sense, even with the predictable overall increase of energy consumption, this study also shows that through the substitution dynamic it is possible not only to reduce the carbonic intensity, but also to reduce the car- bonic emission in absolute terms from 2040-2060 on. Keywords : Primary Energy Source Substitution, Technological Transformation, Socio-Economic Development, Sustainable Development, Carbonic Intensity, Decarbonization 1. Introduction