马世发裴新生2姚凯2胡国华3.pdfVIP

第19卷 第1期 Vol. 19, No.1 2017 年1月 Jan., 2017 引用格式：马世发,裴新生,姚凯,等.基于生态空间胁迫的大都市区增长情景模拟[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(1):20-27. [ Ma S F, Pei X S, Yao K, et al. 2017. Multi-scenario simulation of urban growth in metropolitan area based on ecological stress effect. Journal of Geo-in- formation Science, 19(1):20-27. ] DOI: 10.3724/SP.J. 1047.2017.00020 基于生态空间胁迫的大都市区增长情景模拟 1 2 2 3 马世发 ，裴新生 ，姚 凯 ，胡国华 1. 广东省国土资源技术中心，广州 510075 ；2. 上海同济城市规划设计研究院三所，上海 200092 ； 3. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院，广州 510275 Multi-scenario Simulation of Urban Growth in Metropolitan Area Based on Ecological Stress Effect 1* 2 2 3 MA Shifa , PEI Xinsheng , YAO Kai and HU Guohua 1. Land and Resources Technology Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510075, China; 2. Shanghai Tongji Urban Planning Design Institute, Shanghai 200092, China; 3. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China Abstract: The formation and growth of urban agglomerations have turned to be one of the main urbanization mode in China. New urbanization strategy issued by central government also gives specific attention to smart ur- ban growth especially in rising urban agglomerations. How to select the optimized spatial pattern of urban growth for urban agglomerations becomes one of the most important parts in new urbanization planning. Cellu- lar automata (CA) have proven to be efficient in modeling urban expansion and they have been widely applied to the simulation of urban growth in many cities. The simulation results derived from CA have also provided scien- tific references for making land use planning. This study established a