bayesian receiver operating characteristic estimation of multiple tests for diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis in chadian cattle接受者操作特征估计贝叶斯诊断牛结核病的多个测试乍得牛.pdfVIP

Bayesian Receiver Operating Characteristic Estimation of Multiple Tests for Diagnosis of Bovine Tuberculosis in Chadian Cattle ¨ 1¤ 2 ´ 3 ¨ 3 Borna Muller *, Penelope Vounatsou , Bongo Nare Richard Ngandolo , Colette Diguimbaye-Djaıbe , Irene Schiller4, Beatrice Marg-Haufe4, Bruno Oesch4, Esther Schelling 1, Jakob Zinsstag 1 1 Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland, 2 Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Swiss Tropical Institute, ´ ´ ´ Basel, Switzerland, 3 Laboratoire de Recherches Veterinaires et Zootechniques de Farcha, N’Djamena, Chad, 4 Prionics AG, Schlieren-Zurich, Switzerland Abstract Background: Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) today primarily affects developing countries. In Africa, the disease is present essentially on the whole continent; however, little accurate information on its distribution and prevalence is available. Also, attempts to evaluate diagnostic tests for BTB in naturally infected cattle are scarce and mostly complicated by the absence of knowledge of the true disease status of the tested animals. However, diagnostic test evaluation in a given setting is a prerequisite for the implementation of local surveillance schemes and control measures. Methodology/Principal Findings: We subjected a slaughterhouse population of 954 Chadian cattle to single intra-dermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) testing and two recently developed fluorescence polarization assays (FPA). Using a Bayesi