bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of schistosoma japonicum prevalence data in the absence of a diagnostic ‘gold’ standard日本血吸虫流行数据的贝叶斯时空建模在缺乏诊断的金标准.pdfVIP

Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Schistosoma japonicum Prevalence Data in the Absence of a Diagnostic ‘Gold’ Standard 1 1 2 3 ¨ 2 1,4 Xian-Hong Wang , Xiao-Nong Zhou *, Penelope Vounatsou , Zhao Chen , Jurg Utzinger , Kun Yang , Peter Steinmann2, Xiao-Hua Wu1 1 National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China, 2 Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland, 3 Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Beijing, People’s Republic of China, 4 Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi, People’s Republic of China Abstract Background: Spatial modeling is increasingly utilized to elucidate relationships between demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors, and infectious disease prevalence data. However, there is a paucity of studies focusing on spatio- temporal modeling that take into account the uncertainty of diagnostic techniques. Methodology/Principal Findings: We obtained Schistosoma japonicum prevalence data, based on a standardized indirect hemagglutination assay (IHA), from annual reports from 114 schistosome-endemic villages in Dangtu County, southeastern part of the People’s Republic of China, for the period 1995 to 2004. Environmental data were extracted from satellite images. Socioeconomic data were available from village registries. We used Bayesian spatio-temporal models, accounting for the sensitivity and specificity of the IHA test via an equation derived from the law of total probability, to relate the observed with the ‘true’ prevalence. The risk of S. japonicum was positively associate