bayesian hierarchical models combining different study types and adjusting for covariate imbalances a simulation study to assess model performance贝叶斯分层模型结合不同类型和协变量调整失衡模拟研究来评估模型的性能.pdfVIP

Bayesian Hierarchical Models Combining Different Study Types and Adjusting for Covariate Imbalances: A Simulation Study to Assess Model Performance C. Elizabeth McCarron1,2*, Eleanor M. Pullenayegum1,3, Lehana Thabane1,3, Ron Goeree1,2, Jean-Eric Tarride1,2 1 Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, 2 Programs for Assessment of Technology in Health (PATH) Research Institute, St. Joseph’s Healthcare Hamilton, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, 3 Biostatistics Unit, St. Joseph’s Healthcare Hamilton, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada Abstract Background: Bayesian hierarchical models have been proposed to combine evidence from different types of study designs. However, when combining evidence from randomised and non-randomised controlled studies, imbalances in patient characteristics between study arms may bias the results. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of a proposed Bayesian approach to adjust for imbalances in patient level covariates when combining evidence from both types of study designs. Methodology/Principal Findings: Simulation techniques, in which the truth is known, were used to generate sets of data for randomised and non-randomised studies. Covariate imbalances between study arms were introduced in the non- randomised studies. The performance of the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for imbalances was assessed in terms of bias. The data were also modelled using three other Bayesian approaches for synthesising evidence from randomised and non-randomised studies. The simulations considered six scenarios aimed at assessing the sensitivity of the results to changes in the impact of the imbalances and the relative number and size of studies of each type. For all six scenarios considered, the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for differences withi