coping with commitment projected thermal stress on coral reefs under different future scenarios应对承诺预计热应力在珊瑚礁不同的未来场景.pdfVIP

Coping with Commitment: Projected Thermal Stress on Coral Reefs under Different Future Scenarios Simon D. Donner* Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Abstract Background: Periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures can lead to mass coral bleaching. Past studies have concluded that anthropogenic climate change may rapidly increase the frequency of these thermal stress events, leading to declines in coral cover, shifts in the composition of corals and other reef-dwelling organisms, and stress on the human populations who depend on coral reef ecosystems for food, income and shoreline protection. The ability of greenhouse gas mitigation to alter the near-term forecast for coral reefs is limited by the time lag between greenhouse gas emissions and the physical climate response. Methodology/Principal Findings: This study uses observed sea surface temperatures and the results of global climate model forced with five different future emissions scenarios to evaluate the ‘‘committed warming’’ for coral reefs worldwide. The results show that the physical warming commitment from current accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could cause over half of the world’s coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent (p$0.2 year21) thermal stress by 2080. An additional ‘‘societal’’ warming commitment, caused by the time required to shift from a business-as-usual emissions trajectory to a 550 ppm CO2 stabilization trajectory, may cause over 80% of the world’s coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent events by 2030. Thermal adaptation of 1.5uC would delay the thermal stress forecast by 50–80 years. Conclusions/Significance: The results suggest that adaptation – via biological mechanisms, coral community shifts and/or managem