development, calibration, and validation of a u.s. white male population-based simulation model of esophageal adenocarcinoma开发、校准和验证的食管腺癌的美国白人男性人群为基础的仿真模型.pdfVIP

Development, Calibration, and Validation of a U.S. White Male Population-Based Simulation Model of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma 1,2,3 1,2 4 2 5 Chin Hur *, Tristan J. Hayeck , Jennifer M. Yeh , Ethan B. Richards , Stuart J. Spechler , G. Scott Gazelle1,3,4, Chung Yin Kong1,3 1 Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, 2 Massachusetts General Hospital Gastrointestinal Unit, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, 3 Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, 4 Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, 5 University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States of America Abstract Background: The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has risen rapidly in the U.S. and western world. The aim of the study was to begin the investigation of this rapid rise by developing, calibrating, and validating a mathematical disease simulation model of EAC using available epidemiologic data. Methods: The model represents the natural history of EAC, including the essential biologic health states from normal mucosa to detected cancer. Progression rates between health states were estimated via calibration, which identified distinct parameter sets producing model outputs that fit epidemiologic data; specifically, the prevalence of pre-cancerous lesions and EAC cancer incidence from the published literature and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. As an illustrative example of a clinical and policy application, the calibrated and validated model retrospectively analyzed the potential benefit of an aspirin chemoprevention pr