risk models to predict chronic kidney disease and its progression a systematic review风险模型预测慢性肾脏疾病及其进展系统回顾.pdfVIP

Risk Models to Predict Chronic Kidney Disease and Its Progression: A Systematic Review 1 2,3,4,5 Justin B. Echouffo-Tcheugui *, Andre P. Kengne * 1 Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America, 2 NCRP for Cardiovascular and Metabolic Diseases, South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa, 3 Department of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa, 4 The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, Australia, 5 Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands Abstract Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common, and associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and end-stage renal disease, which are potentially preventable through early identification and treatment of individuals at risk. Although risk factors for occurrence and progression of CKD have been identified, their utility for CKD risk stratification through prediction models remains unclear. We critically assessed risk models to predict CKD and its progression, and evaluated their suitability for clinical use. Methods and Findings: We systematically searched MEDLINE and Embase (1 January 1980 to 20 June 2012). Dual review was conducted to identify studies that reported on the development, validation, or impact assessment of a model constructed to predict the occurrence/presence of CKD or progression to advanced stages. Data were extracted on study characteristics, risk predictors, discrimination, calibration, and reclassification performance of models, as well as validation and impact anal