when models interact with their subjects the dynamics of model aware systems当模型与臣民意识到系统的动力学模型.pdfVIP

When Models Interact with Their Subjects: The Dynamics of Model Aware Systems Dervis Can Vural* Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois, United States of America Abstract A scientific model need not be a passive and static descriptor of its subject. If the subject is affected by the model, the model must be updated to explain its affected subject. In this study, two models regarding the dynamics of model aware systems are presented. The first explores the behavior of ‘‘prediction seeking’’ (PSP) and ‘‘prediction avoiding’’ (PSP) populations under the influence of a model that describes them. The second explores the publishing behavior of a group of experimentalists coupled to a model by means of confirmation bias. It is found that model aware systems can exhibit convergent random or oscillatory behavior and display universal 1/f noise. A numerical simulation of the physical experimentalists is compared with actual publications of neutron life time and L mass measurements and is in good quantitative agreement. Citation: Vural DC (2011) When Models Interact with Their Subjects: The Dynamics of Model Aware Systems. PLoS ONE 6(6): e20721. doi:10.1371/ journal.pone.0020721 Editor: Enrico Scalas, Universita’ del Piemonte Orientale, Italy Received January 6, 2011; Accepted May 9, 2011; Published June 15, 2011 Copyright: 2011 Dervis Can Vural. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Funding: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under grant numbers NSF-DMR-03-50842 and NSF-DMR09-06921. The funder had no role in study d