预报误差演变近似模型的偏差.pdfVIP

() 46 　6 Vol.46, No.6 　　　JOURNAL OF NANJING UNIVERSITY 　　　　 2010 11 Nov.2010 (NATURAL SCIENCES) ， ＊ ＊＊ 刘凑华, 谈哲敏 , 张　熠 (, , , 210093) 　:　: .、 , . . Lorenz-96, , . 、. :　, , , , , 　 :　P 433 On the deviations of approximate model of forecasting errors growth Liu Cou-Hua, Tan Zhe-Min, Zhang Yi (ey Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather of Ministry of Education, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210093, China) Abstract:　The deviations of accumulative approximate model and linear approximate model of errors growth are discussed in theoretical and numerical experiments.Theoretical results show that the deviations of accumulative approximation for the initial errors, as well as for the model errors, grow linearly with time, but the growth rate of the deviations for model errors is about one half of that for initial errors.The deviations of linear approximation of initial or model errors are proportional to the norm of errors linear part.The results are illustrated by experiments in Lorenz 96 system.Experimental results also show that the deviations of accumulative approximation and linear approximation are both insensitive to background state, and the deviations of accumulative approximation of model errors are insensitive to model errors sources.These results provide theoretical basis for understanding the applicable range of approximate models and the separation of error growth phases. Key words:　initial errors, model errors, forecast errors, error growth, approx