中国经济低碳转型绩效的历史变迁与地区差异-理论中国网.pdf

中国经济低碳转型绩效的历史变迁与地区差异* 朱承亮，岳宏志 （西北大学经济管理学院，陕西西安，710127） 内容提要：低碳转型是我国可持续发展的内在要求，是实践科学发展观，建设“两型” 社会的必由之路。本文构建了一个能同时包含“稳增长”、“低能耗”、“低排放”多元目标的 可持续发展分析框架，基于1985-2010年全国27个省份投入产出面板数据，运用基于DDF 的 ML生产率指数和增长核算法，对我国经济低碳转型绩效进行了评估。研究发现：不考虑环 境因素会高估生产率及其对经济增长的贡献，从而对我国低碳转型绩效做出较为乐观判断； 绿色全要素生产率（GTFP ）增长主要来源于技术进步，且受制度因素水平效应影响，考察 期内GTFP增长率呈现“先升后降再平稳”的时间趋势特征；GTFP是经济增长重要驱动力之 一，考察期内我国经济低碳转型绩效明显，受边际转型成本影响近年来有趋缓回落趋势，我 国仍属于资本和能源双重驱动的粗放型经济增长方式；我国经济低碳转型绩效地区差异明 显，部分欠发达省份也表现出了较高的转型绩效，但这种地区差距具有相对稳定性，仅在两 次危机期间表现出了较大波动。暂且撇开关于低碳模式“阴谋论”还是“双赢论”争论对错 不说，在本文中我们确实捕捉到了我国低碳转型绩效明显的信息，综合来看，我国经济低碳 转型任重而道远，但艰难与希望并存。 关键词：低碳转型 绿色全要素生产率 经济发展方式 历史变迁 地区差异 The Fluctuation and Regional Difference of Low Carbon Transformation Performance in China Abstract : Low carbon transition is the inherent requirement of sustainable development and it’s the necessary way to practice the scientific outlook on development and to construct two-oriented society in China. Based on 27 provinces’ input-output panel data, the paper constructs a multiple objectives of sustainable development framework contained steady growth, low energy and low emission to assess the low-carbon transition performance, which applies the Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index and growth accounting method. The study finds that not to consider environmental factors overestimates productivity and its contribution to economic growth, we have more optimistic judgments on the low carbon transition performance. The growth of GTFP comes mainly from technological progress, and subjects to the effect of the level of institutional factors, the GTFP growth rate shows “ first rise then drop and last smooth” time trend features during the reviewed period. GTFP is an important driver of economic growth and the low carbon transition performance is obvious. Affected by the slowing down marginal tran