1971―2010年荣成市气候变化分析.docVIP

1971―2010年荣成市气候变化分析 　　摘要 根据荣成市1971―2010年的气象资料，用气候统计方法分析了气温、降水量、日照等气象要素的变化。结果表明：荣成市40年来年代平均气温上升了1.1 ℃；秋季增温明显，冬季次之，夏季最弱；荣成市40年来每月都有升温，2月升温速率较快，7月升温速率较缓。近40年来荣成市年平均降水量总体表现为增加趋势；春季降水增多趋势最明显，其次是夏季，秋季降水呈减少趋势。40年来荣成市平均日照时数呈下降趋势；夏季平均日照时数的下降趋势所表现出的贡献最大，其次为秋季，春季最弱。 　　关键词 气候变化；气温；降水量；日照；山东荣成；1971―2010年 　　中图分类号 P467 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-5739（2016）24-0207-02 　　Analysis of Climate Change in Rongcheng City During 1971-2010 　　WANG Xiao-ning 1 XU Ke 2 SUN Qian-qian 3 　　（1 Rongcheng Meteorological Bureau in Shandong Pronvince，Rongcheng Shandong 264300； 2 PLA 94595； 3 Weihai Meteorological Bureau） 　　Abstract Based on the meteorological data of Rongcheng Weather Station from 1971 to 2010，the changes of meteorological elements including temperature，precipitation，sunshine duration，etc. were analyzed by using statistics methods. The results showed that in Rongcheng City，the average air temperature was rising year by year. The average temperature increased by 1.1 ℃ in recent 40 years. The temperature′s uptrend in autumn was the most obvious，and that in summer was the weakest. The air temperature rose each month in recent 40 years，the temperature′s rising rate was the fastest in February，and the slowest in July. In recent 40 years，the mean annual precipitation in Rongcheng City showed increasing trend in general. The increasing trend of precipitation in spring was the most obvious，and followed by summer，the precipitation in autumn declined. The annual sunshine appeared a decreasing trend in recent 40 years. The decreased trend of sunshine duration in summer showed the biggest contribution，and followed by autumn，spring showed the smallest contribution. 　　Key words climate change；air temperature；precipitation；sunshine duration；Rongcheng Shangdong；1971-2010 　　2009年底，?合国在哥本哈根召开气候变化大会，众多焦点问题都集中于大气环境变化及其带来的气候效应，特别是全球气温变化问题。IPCC第四次评估报告指出，最近100年（1906―2005年）全球平均地表温度上升了（0.74±0.18）℃[1]。丁一汇等[2]的研究表明，我国气候变化与全球气候变化的特点基本一致，目前仍属于暖期。徐宗学等[3]指出，1990年代以来，气温呈现出明显的上升趋势，为近40年来最暖的时期，年内春季和冬季气温有上升趋势，其中冬季气温上升对全