新 疆玛纳斯河流域气候变化及其对径流量的影响分析.pdfVIP

the variation of runoff is mainly caused by climate change ，especially in yearly and seasonal temporal scale. The winter runoff is stable in past 40a ，other seasonal runoff and yearly runoff are much smaller during 1976 and 1986 than other periods and show significant monotonic increasing trends after 1987. Carrying out the regression analysis between the runoff volume and snowcover depth and average air temperature and precipitation in summer in Manas river basin , it is considered that the runoff volume is mainly affected by air temper -ature in summer ,then the precipitation in summer and the year snowcover .The correlation between surfaces runoff and climate for Manas river area was established to study the response of surface runoff to climate change, conclusions are as follows :①the precipitation and the stream discharge have a good positive correlation in common on situation except in special years, and the response feature of hydrological year is more or less 10%(or 20%,or 30%)than normal, the flow of runoff is more or less 1.98%(or 3.95%,or 5.93%).②The further study shows that the temperature from May to September and the runoff have a good positive correlation. The annual air temperature is higher or lower 1 ℃(or 2 ℃,or 3 ℃)than normal, the flow of runoff is more or less 1.3%(or 2.68%,or 4.0%). This article makes use of the grey related analysis method mainly to study the interreaction between the surface runoff change of Manas river and climate factors .The result indicates the related degree between the runoff of Manas river and the climate factors ：r temperature ＞r humidity ＞r evaporation capacity ＞r precipitation ，this indicates the t