RB内部估值模型教程.pptVIP

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Document number Content Executive summary Valuation tools will typically revolve around two types of methodologies : Future Cash Flows and Historical Market Prices Making a good valuation requires a good understanding of the target Getting started with valuation Making a good valuation requires a good understanding of the target Preliminary advice for a good valuation work Giving the right number Working in an uncertain environment with confidence Build a knowledge base Calculating a fair value is always a challenge The valuation equilibrium will also be affected by dynamic exogenous factors Ultimately, valuation sensitivity will depend on the management capacity to lead value creation initiatives As there is no “single value“ for a company, different approaches must be used to find the right valuation range A combination of different approaches must be used to calculate a valuation range The DCF method is the most commonly used valuation method – especially in MA transactions The DCF method is based on three key value drivers Value drivers in Discounted cash flow method (1) Value drivers in Discounted cash flow method (2) Value drivers in Discounted Cash Flow method (3) Potential pitfalls of the DCF method Value of the firm Discounted cash flow analysis provides an estimate of Intrinsic value DCF requires in-depth business analysis The DCF method is based on three key value drivers Determination of cash flows Changing net working investment NWI is useful because it helps us to understand the business of target company However, there are some industries where NWI dose not apply Some business are sensitive to various cycles and by understanding these will have accurate forecast of NWI Changes in NWI need to be evaluated Valuations are highly sensitive to the discount rate Investors use various methods for calculating discount rates Many companies use their own hurdle rates … But hurdle rates have fundamental weaknesses Nonetheles