武广高速铁路对客运通道综合交通结构影响研究.pdfVIP

文章编号： 1003-1421(2012) I0-0026-07 中图分类号： U238; U49!.1+23 文献标i只码： A 武广高速铁路对害远通道 综合交通结构影响研究 Research on Influence of Wuhan-Guangzhou High-speed Railway on Comprehensive Traffic Structure of Passenger Transport Corridor 庞会朵，尹相勇，求以华 PANG Jin-yan, YIN Xian8-YOTI8, SONG Yi-hua （北京交通大学交通运输学院，北京 100044) (School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China) 摘 要：借鉴有关研究成果，分析武广高速铁路开通后客运通道内交通结构变化， 以Logit 分担率模型为基础，结合相关调研数据，建立高速铁路对客运通道综合交通 结构影响的系统动力学模型，应用系统动力学Vensim 软件进行仿真，得到客运通道中 不同交通方式的客运分担率、客运量的发展趋势。研究结论表明，经济发展是综合 交通结构演化的动力，人民生活水平提高是高速铁路新增诱发客运量的主要来源， 武广高速铁路客运量及客运分担率将稳步上升；既有铁路客运量将保持一定规模， 呈稳定发展态势，其分担率呈下降趋势号航空客运逐步分担率趋于稳定。 关键词：高速列车；客运量g 客运分担率；交通结构 Abstract: By referring relative research results, this paper analyzes the traffic structure change of passenger transport corridor after opening 。f Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway. Based on Logit sharing rate mode and combined with relative research data, the system dynamics m。del for influence of comprehensive traffic structure of high副speed railway on passenger transport c。rridor is established. 丁hr。ugh evaluating by using system dynamics Vensim software, the development trend of passenger transport sharing rate and passenger traffic v。lume in di仔erent way of passenger transport corridor are achieved. The research result shows economic development is the power of change of comprehensive traffic structure, increase of people’s living level is the main resource of new increased passenger traffic volume in high-speed railway, and the passenger traffic volume