基于CBR-RBR的工程争端诉讼结果预测.pdfVIP

228 2013 ，49（23） Computer Engineering and Applications 计算机工程与应用 基于CBR-RBR 的工程争端诉讼结果预测 吕文学，杨权利 LV Wenxue, YANG Quanli 天津大学 管理与经济学部，天津 300072 College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China LV Wenxue, YANG Quanli. Predicting outcome of construction disputes litigation based on CBR-RBR model. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2013, 49（23）：228-234. Abstract ：The complex nature of construction, participants with different backgrounds, uncertainties and the incompleteness of the contract often lead to disputing in construction industry. Litigation may be an effective way to solve the problem. In order to avoid resolving disputes through litigation blindly, the paper is trying to predict the outcome of the litigation of disputes by using the CBR-RBR model, so that the parties can know whether their behaviors are reasonable before the resort to the law. The paper proposes a framework of the prediction of litigation outcomes based on CBR-RBR model, then this method is applied to the pre- diction of construction defects disputes. The result shows that the prediction accuracy of construction defects disputes is up to 93.75%, which indicates that the proposed CBR-RBR method can be effectively applied to the field of construction dispute litigation. Key words ：Case-Based Reasoning-Rule-Based Reasoning（CBR-RBR ）; construction disputes; construction defects 摘 要：工程项目争端频发，双方最终有可能通过诉讼解决争端。但诉讼成本高昂，破坏双方友好合作关系并影响公司声 誉，因此遭到很多学者的反对。为了避免争端双方盲目通过法律途径解决争端，试图对工程争端诉讼结果进行预测，希望 争端双方在诉诸法律之前能够认识到自身行为的合理性。提出通过CBR-RBR 方法对工程争端诉讼结果进行预测，并首 次尝试对预测结果进行数量化处理，以提高CBR-RBR 系统的实际应用价值。在此基础上，以“工程缺陷争端”这一争端类 型进行实例研究，结果表明该方法对工程缺陷争端结果预测的准确率高达93.75% ，而且最终数量结果的偏差也在预期范 围之内，说明提出的CBR-RBR 方法可以有效地应用于工程争端诉讼结果的预测，为双方解决争端提供科学依据。 关键词：基于案例的推理-基于规则的推理（CBR-RBR ）；工程争端；工程缺陷 文献标志码：A 中图分类号：F284 doi ：10.3778/j.issn.1002-8331.1208-0274 1 引言 但通过诉讼方式解决争端将导致巨额的交易成本和较低 工程项目存在参与方多、工序繁杂以及不确定性等特