武汉汤逊湖未来水环境演变趋势的模拟 Simulation of lake water environment trends in Tangxun lake of Wuhan under rainfall uncertainty.pdfVIP
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武汉汤逊湖未来水环境演变趋势的模拟 Simulation of lake water environment trends in Tangxun lake of Wuhan under rainfall uncertainty
中国环境科学2009,29(9):955~961 ChinaEnvironmentalScience
武汉汤逊湖未来水环境演变趋势的模拟
褚俊英P,秦大庸1,王浩1,肖伟华1,黄天荣2,王怀清3(1冲国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京
100038:2.武汉市水务局,湖北武汉430014,3.武汉市水利规划设计研究院,湖北武汉430015)
摘要:以流域为基本单元进行水质水量耦台,构建武汉汤逊湖水环境演变模型(TXHwater);借助MonteCarlo分析方法,对未来汤逊湖的水环
来水不确定性对流域汇流、巡司河入流过程影响较大,主要体现在汛期的5~9月份.如按现有规划,不考虑对污染物指标的削减,到2010年
和2020年该湖末来水环境形势严峻,水质将演变为劣v类,主要控制指标为TN和TP汛期曲8月浓度达到峰值.
关键词:水环境演变模型;不确定性;汤逊湖;来水;水质
中图分类号:X703 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1000-6923(2009)09-0955-07
Simulationoflakewaterenvironmenttrendsin lakeofWuhanunderrainfall
uncertainty.CHU
Tangxun Jun-ying”,
QINDa-yong‘,、vANGHa01,XIAOW萌·hua‘,HUANGTian-ron92,W^NG ofWater
InstituteofWaterResourcesand Water
Resources,China HydropowerResearch,Beijing
InstituteofWaterResourcesand
Authority,Wuhan430014,China.3.Wuhan PlanningDesign,Wuhan
China
Environmental
Science,2009,29(9):955-961
to
Abstract:Focusonthe and inthewhole modelWas evaluatewater
quantityqualityprocess basin,TXHwaterdeveloped
environmenttrendsof Lakein MonteCarlo ofwatershed
Tangxun Wuhan.Throughtechniques,characteristicspollution
and
loads.waterflowswater trendsunclerrainfall were ofsimulatedCOD
quality uncertaintypresented.Theuncertainty
andTPwas TNin
and ofsimulatedand themedium
largestsmallest,respectively,whileuncertainty NH3-N
had
conditions onthe andstreaminflowofXunsiriver thefloodseason.If
significant during
impactsrunoffyie
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